General Revenue and Financial Outlook

Recent General Revenue collections are significantly overperforming previous estimates. Per the latest Financial Outlook Statement (1/24/2022) from the Office of Economic and Demographic Research (EDR), the General Revenue Fund will receive an estimated $41.2 billion in revenue for FY 2021-22, in addition to $13.8 billion in carry-over funds from last FY’s general revenue surplus—$54.3 billion in total available funds. This represents a $3.3B increase from the previous forecast and a 10.8% growth rate from FY 2020-21 revenues.

Driving this short-run revenue boom has been a host of external variables: rising consumer prices and the remaining purchasing power impacts of recent stimulus programs have led to robust sales tax revenues of late. Meanwhile, an active housing market has led to swelling documentary stamp revenues from mortgage executions and property transfers. 

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Looking ahead, the Revenue Estimating Conference cautioned these collection figures could be short-lived—as the flow of federal dollars slows and people impose personal budget constraints to meet rising costs. The Conference’s updated forecast expects the collection figures to have a moderate negative growth rate, -2.9%, in FY2022-23 over FY2021-22, before stabilizing and climbing again in FY2023-24. At FY 2021-22 appropriations levels, there is an expected carry-over of $11.3 billion into the coming fiscal year.

This $11.3 billion, coupled with an estimated $39.2 billion in collected revenue, gives the legislature approximately $50.5 billion in available General Revenue funds for FY2022-23. Early appropriations estimates range from $37.0 billion from the General Revenue Fund (per the Governor’s recommended budget) to $39.2 billion in the initial House Appropriations package and $41.7 billion in the Senate, though these figures are subject to change.